Oh Sandy...

X2

Getting serious now, power is going off and on. My neighbor just texted to tell me someone's deck furniture is blowing down the street. Glad I'm uphill from the Schuylkill, I have no doubt Manayunk is flooded by now.

Gotta love the city, the world is ending but I was able to get pizza delivered.

City life is great isn't it?  We had lunch at a neighborhood pub about six blocks from the house and it was PACKED.  60 mph here in Balt. city now...no power issues as of yet.

This is just some crazy $h!+!!!

x infinity+1

please stay safe everyone. 

I know. It was terrible waking up to those images of NYC this morning. The Jersey Shore, especially Atlantic City, got hit hard, too. So sad. I live in South Jersey but managed to avoid any damage or loss of power. I'm very lucky.

The science of this is fascinating:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/

And maybe something good will come of it, like a small boost to the economy?

http://theweek.com/article/index/235607/could-hurricane-sandy-actually-help-the-economy

I seem to recall that there was a pretty good construction boom after Katrina.  Looks like we may have the same thing here.  Since I'm the OP, I wouldn't mind others commenting on this.  I don't mind sidetracking the original post with something that might actually be positive.

I disagree. This is a broken window fallacy to me IMO. 

Interesting.  I've been reading up on that (wasn't familiar with it till I read the article I posted) and aren't there a few assumptions that can be taken either way?  Like the inherent value of the window and whether it is positive or not?

Also, I don't think there will be an over all net positive, because of some of the points outlined in the BWF but the way I think of it is that it isn't a long term net positive, but a short term positive bump. 

I look at it like this. If it was going to help the economy, why don't we randomly roll in and destroy cities to help jump start the economy.

Another factor that is being ignored is that the holiday season is one of the biggest spending time frames in the whole year. This will have an adverse impact on that.

If you take the true broken window fallacy it follows below (yes I stole it because I am still familiarizing myself with it).

The interpretations assume that the "window" has positive value and that replacing it is not a good investment. In the broader scope, offsetting factors can reduce or even negate the cost of destruction. For example, new technologies developed during a war and forced modernization during postwar reconstruction can cause old technologies to become valueless. Also, if two shopkeepers keep their "window" beyond the point where it would maximize their profit, the shopkeeper whose window is broken is forced to make a good investment - increasing his comparative profit, or rather, reducing his comparative loss. Regardless, while wanton destruction of real value may not be a net loss, it is of course still a misfortune, not a blessing.  Others argue that the broken window may not lead to reduction in spending by the victim, but rather, a reduction in excessive savings. "The logic of limited resources only applies when the economy is using most of those limited resources. If there are slack resources, we need merely mobilize some of the slack resources." The reductio ad absurdum of breaking 100 windows, then, only applies once underutilised resources have run out, and the tailor is forced to divert resources from more productive means.

So I don't completely buy into your argument.  Personally, I believe it is somewhere in the middle of the two extremes.

I agree with your addition of the holiday shopping affect.

ETA: they are already predicting it will have a 0.1-0.2 negative affect on the GDP in the short term.

Yeah, I just talked to my family this morning. They were told 10 days until power is restored. And if any of you know the history of the shore, Lucy the Elephant was destroyed.

eta: just saw this video of Margate, NJ. Unbelievable.

There's a pic showing her intact after the brunt of the storm.

My mom lied. Now I feel like I'm on slowtwitch

as jmk mentioned- Breezy Point and Rockaway looks like pure Armageddon. Full blocks of bungalows (I'm now hearing 100+ homes) gone from the fire.  2-story homes covered in sand like after a snow blizzard. New Jersey shore towns did not have the extensive fires, but also had massive, massive destruction. One mayor said all of the houses on his beachfront were "obliterated".