Training Plan for a BQ

Novice plans are generally for people to get across the finish line.  Maybe you could BQ using a novice plan if you already had BQ run fitness before starting the plan, but I wouldn't count on the plan actually improving your fitness.

And just because McMillian predicts a BQ time, it doesn't mean you have BQ fitness.  It just means you have BQ potential.  "Most" people do not realize their potential by using a novice plan...but I'm sure there are some exceptions to the rule.

1. What was your HM time?

2. What is your BQ time?

3. Without knowing more, my guess is no. A beginner plan that PEAKS at 36 mpw is not going to prepare you for a BQ.... especially if you have only been running 20 mpw. Most runners use a plan that peaks at 55 (or 75, or higher) mpw. Generally, novice plans are for a "just finish."

That said, maybe you are freaky fast and can just go out and BQ. who knows

This past weekend I posted 1:31:XX and the 2013 BQ time for my AG 40-44 is 3:15.  

FWIW my best 5 km time is 19:09 and my best 10 km time is 40:24 - both in the past 3 months.

I felt fantastic for the first 10 miles, but started to feel it in my legs for the last 3.1. 

I expect that increased mileage would help this, but as you've pointed out, I was wondering if 36 mpw is enough to avoid a death march over the finish line.

Honestly, you have the speed and should be able to qualify.  That's the good news...I'm assuming you ran around a 1:30 1/2.

Here's the advice you paid for.  Don't use that plan.  36 at peak is crazy IMO.  So your long run would be over 50% of your weekly volume?  It's really not a great plan and one of the reason you see people get hurt all the time in marathon training IMO.  You'd be a lot better off running 3 more hours a week than spending it on the trainer if you want to run a decent stand alone marathon.  

edit:  saw your post above.  So, close to 1:30 on low mileage...that's great.  A half marathon is closer to about 25% as long as a marathon....it's not really half the distance  I'm serious.  The math is an illusion. 

Mcmillan assumes something around 70mpw for the marathon. I had good luck with the 18/55 plan - can't imagine trying to qualify on less mileage though. You should be 30mpw or more before even starting a plan IMO.

Sounds like you are getting close! For reference, this spring I ran a 1:37 HM 2 weeks before a 3:21 M on about 35mpw. I bumped up the mileage to about 50 and 6 weeks later ran a 3:09 with a 1:31 first half.

The difference between those two marathons was how much better I felt for the second half. I still slowed down quite a bit on the second marathon's second half, but having more mpw for just a month made a huge difference. 

I'm still chasing my BQ, but I don't see it happening till the Spring. I have fallen back to 25-30mpw.

Good luck. Hopefully we'll both be in Boston in 2014!

Even that might be an understatement...

I read somewhere that you want to your weekly distance be double of your race distance for a good run.

So this would mean you should look for at least 52MPW

You have the potential for a BQ for sure, but don't underestimate the training required to get there. 

I have PRs in HM through 5k that are faster than yours and I was barely able to crank out a 3:11 on a fairly fast course after 4 attempts. The marathon is a hard one.

If you train under 35 miles per week, I would give you zero chance of making the BQ, unfortunately. I suspect you'll need at least 50 to maintain the speed that Mcmillan suggests - those are very aggressive estimates, even for a 70mpw runner, and should be considered the upper limits of what's possible for your marathon potential. 

However, it's a really good sign that your current benchmarks already exceed the Mcmillan comparison. It really suggests that you have the potential to get there soon - if you train hard for it.

I would highly suggest the book "Advanced Marathoning" by Pete Pfitzinger and to follow either the 18/55 or 18/70 (18 weeks / 55 miles per week or 70mpw) plans for the BQ. If you do that, and enter a fast downhill net elevation marathon (very important since you're on the cusp of a BQ - a nondownhill course can add 5-7 mins), you should be able to do it. 

Lots of good advice in here already. I'd recommend to look at the range of pace calculators at Greg Maclin's site here. I'd also recommend this thread, in which one of the marathon pace gurus from the Runners World forums shares her pace estimation tips. You'll see that the MacMillan calculator is generally among the more aggressive estimators.

As others have said, it's clear that you have the potential to run a BQ, but equally clear that your current plan would be unlikely to get you there. Preparation for a good marathon cannot be faked, and consistent solid mileage really is needed. It's odd, but even for folks who think nothing of a hard 6-hour bike ride, running beyond 20 miles places special demands on your body, and if you fade you can lose a lot of time really quickly. Smart pacing is so much more important for a marathon than for shorter distances. Doing a marathon can be a fantastic experience, but you need to respect the distance.

Thanks for the feedback everyone. 

You've basically confirmed what I knew in my gut - gotta increase the mileage if I have any shot at a realistic BQ.

The comment that a HM is only 25% the distance (or less) of a full Marathon is a great analogy. 

I was reading one of the other BT threads where almost everyone commented that a marathon was more difficult than a HIM. 

That really surprised me as, on paper, I would have thought that the HIM was on a completely different level of endurance.

You have the speed, and you have the time to train. The key is increasing mileage intelligently and slowly so that you remain healthy. By intelligently I mean building your long tempo runs so you learn to hold pace over a longer distance, mixing in hill and repeat workouts, and ensuring most of your mileage is at a relatively easy pace. I'd look for a plan that has at least two, and preferable three or four twenty mile runs. I always like a three week build, one week recover cycle over 4 months. 36 miles would not be enough for me, I need to peak around 60mpw. I've run marathons on much less, but IMO the more miles you put into training the less those last 4 hurt during the race. Don't overlook the importance of nutrition in a marathon, either. Work that out well before race day.

And trust me, no matter how much you've trained, those last 4 are tough, mentally and physically.

Yes, as others have said, your times (and good ol' McMillan) say that you are capable of a BQ. 

You very well may be able to BQ with Higdon's Novice 2 and if that's all you can do, well, that is all you can do.

Personally, I BQed with the Hal Higdon (I believe it was Novice 1) in my first marathon.

BUT (you knew that was coming, didn't you?) there are no guarantees. I trained with significantly higher mileage for my second marathon and saw speed gains at all distances as well as making the marathon itself MUCH more enjoyable. Just from simply running more. I didn't do any speedwork. I just simply got out that door as often as possible.

I guess my two questions are:

1. How does your body handle high(er) mileage?

2. Are you willing to commit to a little more time? Perhaps cut down those trainer sessions?