YES...I'm tapering

Some of you may see this as elitest, but I assure you it's the opposite.  But if you do, then so be it.

I think I just made either a big mistake or gave myself a little bit of confidence/wiggle room.

I have been preventing myself from analyzing what it would take to 'historically' get me a Kona slot at IM Louisville.  As many people found out at IM MOO last year, historically has nothing to do with race day reality, but it's all we got.

There are 8 slots tentatively available on August 30th for the 35-39 AG.  Today, I took a look at the top 10 times for the last 2 years at this race.  I'm assuming a roll down since it's a 5 week turnaround to Kona.  Last year the 10th finisher went 10:39 with a huge break between 3 & 4 (9:49 to 10:13).  In 2007 the 10th finisher went 10:18. 

For the last month, I have been waffling between:  YES I can do this and WTF are you thinking?!  I also know that it all comes down to what I can do on the race course.  I could perform well or I could perform not so well.  Ideally, I'd like to walk off the course having had a solid race, whatever that time happens to be.  But in reality, if that happens, I have a legitimate chance of getting a slot.

So, back to my analysis.  Out of the top 10 finishers in the last 2 years, including any that aged up, only 4 are entered in this year's race.  From 08 the 1st and 6th place finishers and from 07 the 10th and 3rd (age up).  So...that leaves a huge gap in there for an unknown to step in...like myself or many other fasties granted.

I fully believe that, for me, the difference will be my mental attitude during the race.  During the ENTIRE race.  Specifically mile 80 of the bike and mile 16+ of the run.  Will I be able to just shut out the negative demons and let the race come to me?  Will I buckle and think that I have to walk in order to keep moving? or remember that a slow jog is faster than walking?

We (Jorge and I) have focused on the mental game and I spend the last 10K of every run with the toughts of it's mile 20 of the run...time to focus and get that slot.  Even to the point that I am trying to convince someone to be at the 20 mile marker with a sign that says, "10K to Kona".  But will that be enough?    Will this new found knowledge be my ace in the hole to tell myself to keep going and see where my body takes me? 

Most people that know me would say that I am far from cocky.  And I would agree with them.  But it's also another thing to not believe that you can do something.  I believe that I am in shape to go fast in Louisville.  Wether that happens or not, time will tell.  I walk down the hallway and find myself fantasizing about going down the finish chute and being on the podium in two weeks.  I get that electric feeling inside of me and then the doubts start to creep in.

I really don't know why I am writing this, but I just wanted to put my thoughts into words and see what other people thought.  So in summary, I either just made the quintessintial No No of expecting to do well or gave myself that little bit of confidence of knowing that historically if I am slower than I expect, it's may still be good enough.