Lance is Racing 70.3 Panama (Page 3)

There is no comparison. Jordan is a stud triathlete cyclist and he recently did a TT at the Tour of California and there were several pro girls that beat his time.

Chris would be a decent Cat 1 cyclist...and all Cat 1's are basically jokes compared to Pro Team cyclists....and LA was one of the best ever. He will be first off the bike as his swim is better than Lieto's....he will ride very conservative so that he has a good run, but there is no doubt he is first off the bike barring anything unusual....but it is endurance racing, unusual is sometimes the norm...and that's why they hold the race on Sunday...because nothing is certain...but there is no one in that race that would hold a freaking candle to LA if it were an aquathon. 

I agree. He won't lose much time if any on the swim and I think he will crush on the bike unless her purposefully reigns himself in to save himself for the run. I would think he might realize that he is better off to build a time and psychological advantage by biking to his ability and run for his life not to get caught before 13.1. 

Out of curiosity I looked up results... Jordan Rapp's time (racing as an amateur) was 35 mins on a 15 mile tt?  That seems subpar for him unless the course was ridiculous.  For comparison with the pro men, Zabriskie won it in 30:35.

I don't know how well Lance will do in the end, but I agree that this will be his strategy.  If he starts to build a big lead on the bike, then some of the weaker bikers and strong runners will have to consider changing their game plan to push harder on the bike and make sure that lead doesn't grow too big.  It almost forces some pros to go to "plan B".

So yeah...anytime you can race your "Plan A", and force others to race their "Plan B"...that's an advantage to you.

Agreed... and emphasize: 5 mins ahead on a 15 mile course.

Sounds about right to me.  Only 70 of the 131 professionals cracked 34 minutes.  Andy Schleck rode almost 32:50.  So I wouldn't be shocked if Jordan Rapp lost to Andy by about 2 minutes.

Seems like a small difference but when you look at the actual speeds, it jumps out at you.  35 mins = 25.7 mph (cat 4 territory - which is why I asked about the course).  30 mins = 30mph.

Well...then almost half of the pro riders at California must have been Cat 2-4 then huh? 

I believe Solveng was considered a tough course...but I haven't been following pro cycling long enough for actual comparison.

The time gap is large...and it is a bit of an exaggeration to compare the top time trialists like Zabriske to Jordan Rapp.  Which is why I mentioned more of a comparison to Andy Schleck.  He's not a good TT'er, and I wouldn't be shocked if Lance's 15 mile TT ability isn't close to what Andy's is now. 40 year old Lance is definately not on par with what Zabriske can do in a single TT when he's on his game, but I would bet almost anything he's much faster than Rapp or Lieto.

Apropos of nothing, the winner of the amateur TT in Solvang last year was a 16 year old

carry on with your Lance-ness!

On a side note I just order my Livestrong Tri Bike from Trek!

+1 It will definitely bring some new excitement.

In a year with no Chrissie?  He didnt want to be chicked at Kona!

Miranda can take care of that...

EDIT: just noticed TJ has this in a separate thread

Edited by the bear 2012-02-09 9:09 AM

TDF riders have a ridiculous amount of endurance base laid down. These guys put in 30 hours a week for years and years before even making it to the TDF. 25,000 miles per year... year after year after year. They are the cream of the crop... the toughest, most fit people on the planet. Remember, in the tour Lance was the "all-rounder" while also winning plenty of individual time trials.

Lance has 2 decades of this type of training under his belt. I wouldn't be too quick to count him out of any endurance event. If he doesn't pull off a win, he will at the very least bring some serious suffering upon anyone trying to beat him. He will destroy Lieto because Chris cannot resist being out in front. Lieto will be burnt to toast trying to hold the line with Armstrong and will be walking within 5 miles into the run.

Unless LA has turned his running around since last October I think Leito will be passing him on the run, thats saying LA is ahead of him in T2. I just have some doubts about how fast LA will be on the bike after his 2 Xterra races, granted they were on mountain bikes but it still makes me wonder. I wish it were live so I could see Leito actually pass someone on the run for once. Could be wrong though, we will all find out Sunday.

Some lance bike porn

http://www.mobli.com/media/show/id/2518114

Sweet!