Anyone want to predict my marathon time?

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2012-02-14 8:00 AM

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Subject: Anyone want to predict my marathon time?
Just did my last long run on Sunday leading up to the cowtown marathon in a little less than 2 weeks.My logs are up to date. What do y'all think?I am aiming for 3:xx and think that I am ready. If you agree, let me know.If you don't, don't tell me!


2012-02-14 8:19 AM
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Subject: RE: Anyone want to predict my marathon time?
I think you are very undertrained in terms of weekly mileage. But it looks like a relatively flat course and you do have some decent 20-milers in your logs. I'd guess if the weather and everything else is good you can go just under 4:00, say 3:57, but it's gonna hurt. Best of luck and have fun!
2012-02-14 8:19 AM
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Subject: RE: Anyone want to predict my marathon time?

Based on your 20 milers I'll say you'll just break 4:00.  3:58 based on McMillian.

2012-02-14 8:24 AM
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Subject: RE: Anyone want to predict my marathon time?
3:55 - 4:00
2012-02-14 8:34 AM
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Subject: RE: Anyone want to predict my marathon time?
2012-02-14 9:54 AM
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Subject: RE: Anyone want to predict my marathon time?
Looking at your 20 mile runs I agree that 3:55 -4:00 should be within reach.  However, based upon your low mileage the last 5-6 miles could be pretty tough.

2012-02-14 10:01 AM
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Subject: RE: Anyone want to predict my marathon time?

I'll play

3:58:44

2012-02-14 10:01 AM
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Subject: RE: Anyone want to predict my marathon time?
2012-02-14 10:03 AM
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Subject: RE: Anyone want to predict my marathon time?
looks like you strung a couple 30+ mpws in a row, and it seems like youve been running a lot of your longer runs on hilly terrain, ill give you 3:49:59, but dont go out too fast!
2012-02-14 10:14 AM
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Subject: RE: Anyone want to predict my marathon time?

Just looking at your logs and volume...I would say 4:20

Unless you have some sort of running background or endurance...like playing soccer...I just don't see enough volume to indicate that you're capable of running faster during a race than you did you're last 20 miler @ 9:24 pace.

McMillian predicts a sub 4:00...but McMillian also assumes that you've been running about 2.5-3x more mpw than you have...which has been less than 20 mpw for the past 5 months.

Have fun and go prove me wrong.

2012-02-14 10:15 AM
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Subject: RE: Anyone want to predict my marathon time?

DP



Edited by tri808 2012-02-14 10:19 AM

2012-02-14 10:25 AM
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Subject: RE: Anyone want to predict my marathon time?
tri808 - 2012-02-14 10:14 AM

Just looking at your logs and volume...I would say 4:20

Unless you have some sort of running background or endurance...like playing soccer...I just don't see enough volume to indicate that you're capable of running faster during a race than you did you're last 20 miler @ 9:24 pace.

McMillian predicts a sub 4:00...but McMillian also assumes that you've been running about 2.5-3x more mpw than you have...which has been less than 20 mpw for the past 5 months.

Have fun and go prove me wrong.

 

PERFECT JASON! That is exactly what I needed to hear. I didnt even know it till I read it. Thx!

2012-02-14 10:27 AM
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Subject: RE: Anyone want to predict my marathon time?

jimmy3993 - 2012-02-14 9:00 AM

 If you agree, let me know.If you don't, don't tell me!

Ok

2012-02-14 11:43 AM
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Subject: RE: Anyone want to predict my marathon time?
3:59:59!   It seems to me you have a really good base for a good half marathon but to make sub-4:00 in a full?  You can do it but I think it's gonna hurt!  Make sure you really try to follow the paths that will not make you run much longer than 26.2 miles.  ^_^

Edited by kloofyroland 2012-02-14 11:43 AM
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