Predict my marathon time!

3:38:30

It's a good course.  Kill it!

3:42:33.  As it is said, so shall it be.

Not trying to be a buzzkill, just very curious since I am training for Philly as well. 3:40 is 8:25 min/mile. You seem to be hanging around 9:30's mostly in training, which is fine for most runs but I only see 2 runs that you refer to as pace runs. One of them was relatively short (4 miles) and was 8:49, and the other that you did hit 8:30 your comments seem to indicate you thought that was faster than planned. What is your planned race pace for training runs? What was your goal time prior to your recent half?

I'm not shooting for a 3:40 -- that's just what McMillan predicts based off a 1:44:39 HM (7:48 pace). My PR is 3:50:53 so I'd be happy with anything under that but I think I could go closer to 3:45. My recent 4 mi pace run was on the treadmill (as are most of my runs now) and for whatever reason a pace on the treadmill feels faster than the same pace outside. 

3:47:30. Good luck and have fun!

Why not?!?!?

Seriously, I don't want to talk you into doing something you're not comfortable with doing.  But, you've got plenty of miles in your legs to go out strong and see what you can do (and your longer races this year say you can do this).

That's why I was asking about training paces and race goal. 3:40 does seem doable based on volume, long run pacing, and races, just didn't see that many race pace runs in the log, and don't know what Trishie considers to be her race pace

Percentage wise I don't know exactly, but maybe one out of every 5 to 7 runs, depending on mileage and volume, and not on a long run. Mostly easy, sometimes hard

ETA -but what the hell do I know, I am sidelined with PFPS.

I'm going to go slightly slower than McMillan at 3:41 but only bceause no one else has been here yet. 

I have found McMillan is very close for me as a race prediction tool.  It has almost nailed my standalone times to the second.

Enjoy the race!  It appears to be a very good course for a solid PR.

3:42.01. Only because someone else said 3:42. Any chance I get to meet you there? I'll be volunteering, no clue where yet.

Clearly this will come down to seconds, so my 3:42:33 will be the spot on winner.  But I do like the price is right methodology! 

I was going to say 3:42 even before reading the other responses, it's a gut feeling.  You've been training in hot/humid weather and Philly is a magical race with cool temps and great crowds.  It's a PR kind of place, for sure.   Have a great race!

(I've only done the half, so I can't really speak to the hills after 13.1 like these other guys can...)